Homework Questions
Discussion Questions: Describe the evolution of the leadership and organization of the al Qaeda terrorist organization after the September 2001 terrorist attacks, including the rise of ISIS. Make sure to address psychological and behavioral factors within al Qaeda leadership and affiliate groups. (350words)
Articles for weekly assignment:
Comparing Al Qaeda and ISIS: Different goals, different targets: https://www.
Al-Qaeda’s evolution since 9/11: https://www.tandfonline.
The Strategic Failures of al Qaeda: https://ssi.
Instructions: Fully utilize the materials that have been provided to you in order to support your response. Your initial post should be at least 350 words. Please respond to at least two other students. Responses should be a minimum of 150 words and include direct questions. You may challenge, support or supplement another student’s answer using the terms, concepts and theories from the required readings. Also, do not be afraid to respectfully disagree where you feel appropriate; as this should be part of your analysis process at this academic level.
Student #1 Lewis (150 words)
To know how terrorist organizations have evolved we must first know where they evolved from. Originally with al Qaeda, it was organized as a type of hierarchy in a business board or military structure where orders are given from the top down and allowed for some initiative with regards to the process of how attacks are to be carried out. A plan of action and coordinated attacks have been utilized since the Russo-Afghan War. These same tactics were carried out until after 9/11. What caused the change, or I would say the beginning of the change was 9/11. Any terrorist organization, focusing on Islamic terrorists, was relying on old tactics against the Soviet Union, “he (bin Laden) anticipated that if the United States did invade Afghanistan, it would intervene in the same ponderous manner of the Soviets, which would permit al Qaeda and the Taliban to bleed the American forces while provoking a general uprising in the Muslim world”(McCabe). Later after the killing of OBL, his letters indicated that he was losing control of the order of al Qaeda. This was possibly due to the security precautions OBL took to protect himself while trying to coordinate attacks around the globe. However, al Qaeda as well as other Islamic terrorist groups did not think of strategy or long term goals. Each wanted immediate results with attacks and gaining territory. This is about the time when ISIS came along and the lone wolf terrorist became more prevalent. Gaining territory in Iraq and Syria, ISIS tried to establish a califate using a blitzkrieg type movement and taking over by force and terror as quickly as possible. As a temporary victory gaining ground, now with multiple nations (some allies but not really) organizing against ISIS, they have been all but defeated and pushed back into Afghanistan. Today it seems that the terrorist groups, without the leadership of goals and coordination, are left to pursue lone wolf attacks at will yet with no real gaining of territory or califate to speak of. However, if terrorist groups can learn from the failigns of ISIS and al Qaeda, they would be able to gain some grounds if not permanen. “It points to strategic principles that can contribute to the defeat and ultimate eradication of al Qaeda; and (3) since there is no reason to believe that al Qaeda will be the last of its ilk, the next jihadi group may learn enough from the present mistakes to be even more dangerous and more successful” (McCabe).
There seems to be a pattern with terrorist groups in general. Most terrorist groups are not as well funded, motivated or organized. Terrorist groups rely on guerilla tactics such as the VC and NVA in Vietnam. By the terrorist groups also not being students of war or history, they made the mistake and continue to make the mistake of attacking the US on US soil. If you know your enemy and yourself, you will never lose a battle (Sun Tzu). Terrorist organizations, since they fight for religion and most of their attacks are reasoned by emotion, they will never win any war with the US, unless US policies restrict the rules of engagement to combat terrorism, which is currently does, but today is more laxed. “while at the tactical level al Qaeda and the jihadis may sometimes be astute, even brilliant, at the strategic level they are so badly misinformed as to be almost delusional” (McCabe). By terrorists not being students of history, the only country/power that last attacked the US were the Japanese, part of the Axis Powers, in retaliation millions of men joined the armed forces the next day, as did many Americans after 9/11, Japan was defeated by weapons in which have never been used in war since. If terrorists knew history, and the US was able to go to war without political restrictions, terrorist would be fearful to speak of any threat against the US.
References.
Various. (2016). HLSS154: Mind of a Terrorist – Lesson Six. Link
McCabe, Thomas R. (2010). The Strategic Failures of al Qaeda. http://ssi.
Student #2 Rhonda (150 words
The terrorist attacks on 9/11 were certainly a highlight for alQaeda and put them front and center in the media, making them appear strong, organized and surely a force to be reckoned with. While those attacks were an operational success for the terrorist organization, it also created quite a strategic challenge. Bin Laden thought that by attacking America on their own soil, it would prompt a course that would end the American influence in Muslim countries, liberation of Muslim lands under foreign occupation and the execution of al Qaeda’s radical version of Islamic Law. But their underestimation has proven that the group’s role in these developments was marginal, at best. They lacked a viable plan to attain their objectives, in the aftermath of the attacks. They didn’t have a plan for shifting their focus from terrorist attacks in the West to operating in the Middle East.
Al Qaeda attempted to reinvent itself. Improvisation led leaders to adopt the franchise model that expanded across the Middle East. Even though they lacked operational capabilities and weren’t able to execute any large-scale attacks, following 9/11, the image they portrayed looked successful. That is, until this strategy backfired on them. It blurred the lines between the organizations distinct ideology of transnational jihad and that of national groups. The fate of al Qaeda was often put in the hands of affiliates they were not able to control, which tarnished their name. Even more harmful was the relationship the organization had with a rogue jihadist that was an extremist who indiscriminately killed Shiites in an attempt to impose his branch on Iraq’s Sunni groups. This particular branch would become the Islamic State and would directly challenge al Qaeda and become their biggest rival.
Bin Laden was capable as a leader and organizationally alQaeda was in much better shape than it became under Zawahiri’s leadership. Bin Laden commanded respect and was very highly regarded. He was a master at managing all of the egos and difficult personalities and the organization stayed whole. In contrast Zawahiri is known to exacerbate tensions by alienating followers, worsening rivalries and making unpopular decisions. Bin Laden would have likely been more capable of managing the dispute with ISIS and perhaps preserved the flawed alliance. He always emphasized the importance of unity within the Sunni jihadist movement, whereas his successor has not been able to manage the troubles and is leaving a divided movement in his wake.
Sources:
McCabe, T. (2010). The Strategic Failures of al Qaeda. Retrieved from:http://ssi.
Did Bin Laden’s death help the Islamic State? The Washington Post. Retrieved from: https://www.
Solution Preview
Al Qaeda Evolution
The purpose of participation of terror groups in activities that only leave the regions in which they operate destitute puzzles many observers. For many decades, Al Qaeda has been viewed as one of the most influential terror groups that reached its peak in the September 11th attacks in New York and has since experienced a decline in its popularity. Notably, the group was “formed as an internationalist group to fight wherever members view Muslims and Islam as being threatened” (McCabe, 2010). However, it has since changed its objective, and the entry of other terrorist groups in the scene within the Middle East region has prompted a significant change in the organization of Al Qaeda, which has also been influential in determining the success of the terror organization.
(705 words)